Kamala has landed in Central America! Everybody has a proposal for her. So let me add my name to the list.
For sure this article will make it to the vice president’s desk. Everyone from the White House to the US embassy in Guatemala will acknowledge that it is the perfect prescription.
Any policy proposal worth its salt should not be a magic bullet. Mine is a comprehensive plan to address the roots of irregular migration. Now let’s get to the point, that the vice president doesn’t have much time.
Step 1. This is the simplest part, and will provide a quick hit. All it takes is getting President Biden to ban the concept of irregular migration. Just define a migrant as a person moving from point A to point B. If you wish, assign each a category for management purposes. E.g., “professional migrants”, such as your ambassador, who just need a salary to be successful. “Privileged migrants” are those who want to go see Mickey Mouse. In this case the key is to ensure they can buy stuff to keep the economy running and then pay taxes wherever they go. “Convenient migrants” settle in the US and create wealth. In their case the priority is encouraging them to help others. And finally “fucked migrants” are the ones who migrate due to fear and poverty, and then are given a hard time for it. These last migrants need help to be unafraid, they need money and they need protection. So give it to them. And that’s it, easy-peasy: stimulus-response, problem-solution, ta-da!, irregular migration is over.
Step 2. If you still don’t want people leaving Central America the approach is a no-brainer: just pay them to stay. Economics is built on the concept of utility, and public policies should maximize the cost-benefit of the behaviors we want to see. A week ago the vice president said people need hope to see that help is on the way. The most concrete help is printed on green safety paper. Call it conditional cash transfers: If you stay home I will make it worth it for you. Just think how many people Trump could have kept here if he hadn’t spent all the cash on a useless wall. And if someone brings up that nonsense about how we must not give people fish, but rather teach them how to fish, remember: the evidence shows cash transfers do not discourage work. Chuck that myth out the window. Another objection that may come up is that people will spend the money on booze. To which I say: so what if they do? Your stated aim is making sure people don’t leave Central America. Let them make what they will with their lives. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forest to the Gulf Stream waters, everyone knows that the secret of success is individual freedom.
A week ago the vice president said people need hope to see that help is on the way. The most concrete help is printed on green safety paper.
And what if they use the money to migrate? OK, that’s a valid concern, but I have another proposal to deal with it.
Step 3. Monitoring. Don’t give people a single lump sum, rather pay out a bit each month. And only pay locally where people live. And only if they prove that they are still there. Too hard? Well, that’s why you brought on board the best tech firms with a call to action! First, ensure internet coverage and enough bandwidth in every community. Check! Second, smartphones for everyone. Check! Third, universal digital banking. Check! Fourth, a financial app with biometric and geolocation functions. (Techno-geeks in Silicon Valley, time to get snappy). And then, every month, have people use the app to take a selfie with their whole family, in their home, pass the biometric verification and ka-ching! the money gets transferred to their account without even leaving home. A technological marvel.
But yes, you’re still concerned that people will spend their money on drink. Which is why I have…
Step 4. Development assistance where people can actually make decisions for themselves. Do you know what happens when the US government puts its money into one of its at least 20 foreign assistance agencies? It then has to find someone to spend the money: terms of reference, bid selection, contracts, reports, monitoring, compliance offices, there’s no end to it! And before you can say “roots of irregular migration,” half the money has been spent; and not only have the beneficiaries not seen any of it, but they’ve already left for Tijuana. And, even if the money eventually does get to them, it will never be more than half of what you put into the system. I know this for certain: I am myself a small cog in the development assistance sausage-making machine! It’s not bad faith, it’s just that managing something like that is both difficult and expensive. So give all the money to the beneficiaries, and then challenge the assistance agencies, companies and NGOs: “So you want money? The cash is already in the system. Now go and convince the people that have it that your services are worth paying for.” It won’t be enough to sit creating overhead in Washington DC, Virginia or Silicon Valley. Now everybody will have to move to El Tumbador, Tajumulco or Joyabaj. You could call it North-South migration.
A joke, certainly. An exaggeration, perhaps. But not by much.
Illustration: The market (2018, own image).
